From time to time in this column I ponder on the phrase ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’ which the fount of all knowledge Wikipedia describes as the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments.

There’s some doubt as to its origin but it seems fairly certain the phrase gained popularity thanks to the author Mark Twain.

It came to mind recently when I watched Home Secretary Suella Braverman in action on a number of news channels.

Braverman was defending her pledge for a new crime crackdown and said police forces in England and Wales have sufficient staffing numbers to tackle ‘back-to-basics policing’ and have all the resources they need to follow all ‘reasonable lines of inquiry’.

This includes following all evidence such as footage from CCTV, doorbells and dashcams, as well as phone data, to find suspect or stolen property.

In Braverman’s words: “There’s no such thing as minor crime.”

So here’s the question. Do police forces across England and Wales really have all the resources they need to take on the extra work of ‘back-to-basics policing’ and follow ‘all reasonable lines of inquiry’.

Braverman says it’s possible because the Tory government has kept its 2019 manifesto commitment to recruit an ‘extra’ 20,000 officers, a target she says was achieved by its deadline of March 2023.

But as the fact-checking website fullfact.org says: “Selective use of official information without appropriate context can damage public trust in both official information and politicians. MPs should use official information transparently and with all relevant context and caveats.”

Or as Mark Twain would have said: Lies, damned lies and statistics.

So what is the ‘appropriate context’ that would indicate Ms Braverman playing fast and loose with the facts? Are these 20,000 new police officers actually extra officers? Well that depends from when you start counting.

The recruitment of more than 20,000 additional officers since 2019 comes after a massive decline in police numbers between 2010 (when the Tories came to power in the Coalition Government) and 2018.

Depending on how you account (headcount or full time equivalents) the number of officers was cut by around 22,000 with the Tories in power.

Just let that sink in. The Tories axed around 22,000 police officers.

So what we are witnessing from Ms Braverman is selective use of official information without appropriate context. Yes, the Tories have fulfilled the 2019 manifesto commitment and the number of police officers is indeed now higher than when the Conservative-led coalition took office but the increase has done nothing more than replace the officer numbers slashed by the Tories. Does this count as the Tories employing ‘extra’ officers? I think not.

Which brings us on to another statistical sleight of hand by Ms Braverman – population growth is higher than police officer growth.

In 2010 the population in England and Wales was around 55.7 million. According to the Office for National Statistics, in 2023 the population of England and Wales is projected to be around 60.4 million.

This is a population increase of around 8.5 per cent while the number of officers has increased by only around 2.4 per cent. Putting it another way, back in 2010, there was around one officer per 281 people that figure is somewhere around one officer per 404 people this year.

And then we come to PCSOs. I’ll be honest, I didn’t like the idea of PCSOs when they were first introduced but I am happy to admit I was wrong. PCSOs proved to be a real benefit to local policing.

Although they don’t have the full range of police powers, PCSOs perform a very important role in tackling low-level crime, anti-social behaviour and getting to know and understand their communities.

So while Ms Braverman wants you to look at the number of warranted police officers in England and Wales, she would like you to ignore the fact that in 2010 – before the Tories – there were 16,918 PCSOs walking their beats, getting to know people and generally helping to stamp out low-level crime.

And how many PCSOs do we have now thanks to Ms Braverman and her pals – just 7,806.

So to summarise: The Tories have replaced the police officers they axed but because the population has increased, we are actually worse off.

And the number of PCSOs has been slashed as well, leaving communities short of essential police representation.

So when you see Ms Braverman crowing about her government’s policing success, I would remind you ponder on the phrase: Lies, damned lies and statistics.